Market Insights 04/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/10/2024

And we’re up … again.

Yesterday saw comments made that injected more uncertainty into the market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report that suggested globally next year will be tight on supply whilst forecasting demand for gas will be at a record high.

At the same time, escalations between Israel and Iran are causing concern for oil markets which have risen steadily in price this week – this will feed through into energy prices as the LNG market is often indexed to the price of oil and Europe is now more heavily reliant on LNG in replacement of Russian gas.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.91 (from €38.62) and the NBP Front Month contract at 100.28p (from 95.86p).

Troll and Asgard remain on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 301mcm (290) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (37.9) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.33% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €39 (vs €40 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 100p, Front Season 95p (vs 96p and 92p)
UK Gas NBP spot 96p (from 93p)
UK Power Base spot £84 (from £88)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £85 (£82) and Front Season at £74 (£73).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($74) and EUAs are at €63 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.97 ($2.89) and JKM is at $13.10 ($13.09) with TTF Equiv of $12.91 ($12.52).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.