Market Insights 03/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 03/10/2024

A small downside movement seen in yesterdays session after a couple of days of upward movements as geopolitical events become ‘priced in’ to the price levels and markets accept this may continue for some time.

Price levels continue to maintain a holding pattern for the time being – with small movements in either direction around this level for several weeks now.

Temperatures expected to hold close to, perhaps just under, seasonal normal for the coming weeks. Gas storages struggling to fit any more gas in store now almost 95% full. Norwegian assets, albeit showing two small unplanned outages, are flowing at strong levels.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €38.62 (from €39.27) and the NBP Front Month contract at 95.86p (from 97.77p).

Troll and Asgard remain on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 290mcm (283) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.9mcm (38.0) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.34% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €38 (vs €39 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 96p, Front Season 92p (vs 98p and 92p)
UK Gas NBP spot 93p (from 95p)
UK Power Base spot £88 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £82 (£83) and Front Season at £73 (£74).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($74) and EUAs are at €63 (€64). Henry Hub is at $2.89 ($2.90) and JKM is at $13.09 ($13.18) with TTF Equiv of $12.52 ($12.76).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.