Market Insights 02/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 02/10/2024

After a softer start to the session yesterday, it ended the day higher following escalations in the Middle East which continued after market close – and saw the price of oil also jump – and that may further impact prices early today.

Geopolitical concerns remain a high worry for the markets despite the underlying fundamentals of the energy complex looking quite strong.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.27 (from €39.04) and the NBP Front Month contract at 97.77p (from 97.36p).

Troll joins Asgard which remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 283mcm (295) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.0mcm (38.3) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.37% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €38 (vs €39 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 98p, Front Season 92p (vs 97p and 92p)
UK Gas NBP spot 95p (from 92p)
UK Power Base spot £81 (from £72)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £83 (£84) and Front Season at £74 (£72).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($72) and EUAs are at €64 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.90 ($2.92) and JKM is at $13.18 ($13.13) with TTF Equiv of $12.76 ($12.77).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.