Market Insights 01/10/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 01/10/2024

Welcome along to October – the start of winter delivery and also a new gas year.

Yesterday saw a further uptick to get the week underway as escalation in the Middle East continues to take focus and maintain some nervousness in the market prices as geopolitical concerns have for some time now.

As we dive into the winter delivery period, temperatures are expected to stay close to seasonal normal for the weeks ahead and we have some 94% of the gas storage capacity filled with gas which should help alleviate some immediate concerns on the fundamental side.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.04 (from €38.58) and the NBP Front Month contract at 97.36p (from 96.40p).

Asgard remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 295mcm (291) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.3mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.28% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.


A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €38 (vs €39 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 97p, Front Season 92p (vs 96p and 91p)
UK Gas NBP spot 92p (from 96p)
UK Power Base spot £72 (from £68)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £84 (£77) and Front Season at £72 (£72).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($72) and EUAs are at €66 (€66). Henry Hub is at $2.92 ($2.90) and JKM is at $13.13 ($13.21) with TTF Equiv of $12.77 ($12.64).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.