Market Insights 30/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 30/09/2024

With continued escalations in the Middle East, which show no signs of abating, markets remain nervous and remain elevated.

Today marks the first country in the G7 to remove coal from its generation stack as the UK closes its last coal fired generation plant. Just over a decade ago, coal accounted for around 30% of the generation stack – that was just 1% last year. Todays closure marks the end of over 140 years of coal use in generation for the UK.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €38.58 (from €37.89) and the NBP Front Month contract at 96.40p (from 91.41p).

Asgard remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 291mcm (277) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.3mcm (37.4) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 94.18% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

Today the front month and front season contracts change.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €37 (vs €39 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 96p, Front Season 91p (vs 91p and 97p)
UK Gas NBP spot 96p (from 91p)
UK Power Base spot £68 (from £54)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£75) and Front Season at £72 (£81).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $72 ($72) and EUAs are at €66 (€67). Henry Hub is at $2.90 ($2.67) and JKM is at $13.21 ($13.19) with TTF Equiv of $12.64 ($12.42).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.