Market Insights 25/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 25/09/2024

The yo-yo of up and downward sessions continues as yesterday saw a softer session to unwind some of the gains seen on Monday.

Various news being reacted to, mostly cantered around weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico, and escalations of tensions in the Middle East and on the Ukraine-Russia border continue to inject some volatility into markets.

Temperatures are expected to hold close to seasonal normal for the weeks ahead, whilst the Norwegian gas assets still show a little temperamental with some of them struggling to get back to full capacity following planned maintenance earlier this month.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.41 (from €36.21) and the NBP Front Month contract at 85.16p (from 88.10p).

Karsto, Asgard and Sleipner all on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 275mcm (269) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.6mcm (37.6) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.74% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €37 (vs €35 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 92p (vs 87p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 83p)
UK Power Base spot £86 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £71 (£71) and Front Season at £80 (£81).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $75 ($74) and EUAs are at €64 (€64). Henry Hub is at $2.55 ($2.61) and JKM is at $13.06 ($13.21) with TTF Equiv of $11.57 ($11.82).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.