Market Insights 24/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 24/09/2024

A further uptick seen yesterday as markets continued to unwind the losses seen on Thursday and get the week off to a bullish start.

We edge closer to the end of summer delivery and closure of the Q4 and Winter delivery contracts in the coming days and this will likely see some increased trading activity for those with positions left to close.

With so many things that could happen to push the market in either direction, eyes are on any further news relating to the ending and/or replacement of the transit gas agreements through Ukraine.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.21 (from €34.44) and the NBP Front Month contract at 87.10p (from 82.50p).

Karsto, Asgard and Sleipner all on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 269mcm (278) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.6mcm (36.9) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (41.9). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.72% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €37 (vs €36 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 87p, Front Season 94p (vs 83p and 91p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 86p)
UK Power Base spot £81 (from £90)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £71 (£70) and Front Season at £81 (£80).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($74) and EUAs are at €64 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.61 ($2.43) and JKM is at $13.21 ($12.97) with TTF Equiv of $11.82 ($11.27).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.