Market Insights 23/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 23/09/2024

Markets rose again on Friday as the news seen on Thursday afternoon relating to a deal to replace Russian gas through Ukraine with Azerbaijan gas at the end of the year failed to be confirmed by official sources.

That remains the case and so markets have returned to their ‘as they were’ levels as attacks on the Ukraine-Russia border continue close to energy infrastructure.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.44 (from €33.08) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.50p (from 79.11p).

Gullfaks on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 278mcm (220) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 36.9mcm (37.3) and Sudzha at 41.9mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.63% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €36 (vs €34 and €35)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 91p (vs 79p and 88p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 79p)
UK Power Base spot £90 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £70 (£68) and Front Season at £80 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($75) and EUAs are at €63 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.43 ($2.35) and JKM is at $12.97 ($12.83) with TTF Equiv of $11.27 ($10.82).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.