Market Insights 18/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 18/09/2024

An uptick to undo the losses seen on Monday and get back to the end of last week levels as Russia attacked energy infrastructure in Ukraine – once again injecting some nervousness into the markets.

As said for some time now, the underlying fundamentals look positive with plenty of gas in store (now struggling to fill the last few percentage points) – filled to target over two months early, normal temperatures expected for the coming weeks and no concerns over supply levels generally.

However, geopolitical events can and will disrupt the comfort levels and this clearly being seen in recent weeks and months and even in the last few days.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.55 (from €34.08) and the NBP Front Month contract at 85.21p (from 81.17p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 235mcm (204) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.3mcm (37.1) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.41% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €38 (vs €36 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 95p (vs 81p and 91p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 80p)
UK Power Base spot £79 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £70 (£69) and Front Season at £81 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($73) and EUAs are at €64 (€63). Henry Hub is at $2.32 ($2.37) and JKM is at $13.30 ($13.13) with TTF Equiv of $11.59 ($11.11).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.