Market Insights 17/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 17/09/2024

The bears were back in control yesterday as prices continued to fall across the board yesterday.

A return to some of the Norwegian flows this morning after several weeks of planned maintenance this month will help maintain confidence, although Oseberg has a small unplanned reduction on flow levels.

Some warmer temperatures expected towards the end of the week before settling at seasonal normal for the rest of the month and throughout October in the latest long term forecasts.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.08 (from €35.65) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.17p (from 85.76p).

Oseberg on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 204mcm (186) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.1mcm (37.6) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.40% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €36 (vs €34 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 91p (vs 86p and 95p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 85p)
UK Power Base spot £81 (from £84)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £69 (£73) and Front Season at £85 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($72) and EUAs are at €63 (€65). Henry Hub is at $2.37 ($2.31) and JKM is at $13.13 ($13.33) with TTF Equiv of $11.11 ($11.59).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.