Market Insights 11/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 11/09/2024

Markets breathed a sigh of relief yesterday as recent sessions showing gains were once again unwound with a decline in price levels across the board.

It seems premium around concerns fell away once again in yesterdays session, after slowly finding their way back into the market in recent days, with a number of traders scratching their heads as to why the market continues to hold premium with strong fundamentals in place for some time.

Cooler temperatures in the days ahead expected before returning to seasonal normal levels for the coming weeks will boost gas storage plans further still, now passing the 93% marker.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.28 (from €37.33) and the NBP Front Month contract at 84.58p (from 89.94p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 193mcm (190) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.0mcm (38.1) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 93.09% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €38 (vs €35 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 96p (vs 90p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 87p (from 90p)
UK Power Base spot £60 (from £34)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £72 (£75) and Front Season at £85 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $69 ($72) and EUAs are at €65 (€67). Henry Hub is at $2.23 ($2.17) and JKM is at $13.79 ($13.78) with TTF Equiv of $11.41 ($12.09).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.