Market Insights 05/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 05/09/2024

A bearish midweek session seen yesterday as the premium continues to erode from the highs seen in recent weeks.

A short cooler spell is expected next week, otherwise temperatures are forecast to remain at or just above seasonal for the coming weeks. No change to the fundamentals otherwise.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.80 (from €37.19) and the NBP Front Month contract at 85.98p (from 89.37p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 190mcm (195) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.1mcm (38.4) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.61% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €38 (vs €36 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 86p, Front Season 97p (vs 89p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 85p (from 87p)
UK Power spot £81 (from £92)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £73 (£76) and Front Season at £86 (£88).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $73 ($74) and EUAs are at €67 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.15 ($2.20) and JKM is at $13.79 ($13.83) with TTF Equiv of $11.64 ($12.05).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.