Market Insights 04/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 04/09/2024

A continuation of bearishness seen in yesterdays session as prices fell across the board after rising for much of late August.

Despite lower Norwegian output, gas stocks are now squeezing the last molecules in readiness for winter and LNG deliveries remain stable for the weeks ahead. Tensions in the Middle East and also those on the Ukraine-Russia border seem to have stabilised for now for some of the risk premiums to erode.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €37.19 (from €38.58) and the NBP Front Month contract at 89.37p (from 92.94p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 195mcm (173) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (37.8) and Sudzha at 42.3mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.52% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €40 (vs €37 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 89p, Front Season 100p (vs 93p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 87p (from 93p)
UK Power spot £92 (from £94)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£79) and Front Season at £88 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $74 ($78) and EUAs are at €68 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.20 ($2.13) and JKM is at $13.83 ($14.09) with TTF Equiv of $12.05 ($12.53).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.