Market Insights 03/09/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 03/09/2024

A soft start to the week despite Norwegian gas output dropping due to planned maintenance, which sees around almost half of the usual flow level offline.

Temperatures are expected to stay in line with seasonal normal levels for the weeks ahead, which are now naturally declining as we head towards the winter months.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €38.58 (from €39.82) and the NBP Front Month contract at 92.94p (from 96.15p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 173mcm (196) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 37.8mcm (37.8) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 92.43% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €41 (vs €39 and €42)
Curve NBP Front Month 93p, Front Season 104p (vs 96p and 106p)
UK Gas NBP spot 93p (from 95p)
UK Power spot £94 (from £91)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £79 (£82) and Front Season at £91 (£92).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($77) and EUAs are at €70 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.13 ($2.13) and JKM is at $14.09 ($14.09) with TTF Equiv of $12.53 ($12.92).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.