Market Insights 23/08/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 23/08/2024

Further small downside seen in yesterdays session as the market continues to see little change in developments further afield that have caused concern in recent weeks, allowing some of the risk premium to be removed. It does however retain that underlying nervousness and could still react to any concerning news.

This morning Ofgem have confirmed the October domestic price cap, in line with the forecasts Auxilione have provided in recent weeks. The ‘headline’ rate will be £1,717 for the typical customer enjoying duel fuel and paying by direct debit. Consumers are advised to check the unit rates applicable for their region and specific circumstances, however the typical expectation is that those costs are back in line with those seen in April of this year.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.59 (from €37.01) and the NBP Front Month contract at 87.52p (from 88.65p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 316mcm (321) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.4mcm (38.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 90.54% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €37, Front Season €40 (vs €37 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 88p, Front Season 102p (vs 89p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 89p (from 85p)
UK Power DA £32 (from £27)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£77) and Front Season at £89 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($76) and EUAs are at €72 (€72). Henry Hub is at $2.05 ($2.18) and JKM is at $13.75 ($13.79) with TTF Equiv of $11.92 ($12.09).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.