Market Insights 22/08/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 22/08/2024

Further downside seen in yesterdays session as the panic injected into markets over recent weeks continues to subside.

Warmer temperatures at the end of the month, and into September, are expected alongside those fundamental comforts mentioned in our reports of recent days may help continue the trend – caveated by any escalation of geopolitical issues further afield which continue to hold concern.

Norwegian planned maintenance for next month will be closely monitored for any changes leading to unplanned outages as we edge closer to the winter delivery period.

Tomorrow Ofgem will formally announce the upcoming Price Cap effective 1st October. Early last week Auxilione updated its ‘What to expect from the October domestic Price Cap’ page – please visit the website to review the forecast.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €37.01 (from €37.96) and the NBP Front Month contract at 88.65p (from 91.46p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 321mcm (328) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.3mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 90.29% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €37, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €37, Front Season €40 (vs €37 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 89p, Front Season 104p (vs 91p and 106p)
UK Gas NBP spot 85p (from 89p)
UK Power DA £27 (from £32)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£79) and Front Season at £91 (£93).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $76 ($77) and EUAs are at €72 (€73). Henry Hub is at $2.18 ($2.20) and JKM is at $13.79 ($13.94) with TTF Equiv of $12.09 ($12.36).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.