Market Insights 21/08/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 21/08/2024

The market took breath yesterday as prices fell after rising and holding for the past few weeks as tensions grew in both the Middle East and on the Ukraine-Russia border.

With talks of a ceasefire seeming to make some progress in the Middle East, and no sizeable uptick in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the market has taken the opportunity to remove some of the risk premium it has held for the last few weeks.

EU gas storage is now officially past the key 90% level it is to hit by November, with two months to spare. This may help keep a lid on prices for that period, as any excess will not be able to be stored as easily, providing geopolitical activities do not escalate further.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €37.96 (from €39.85) and the NBP Front Month contract at 91.46p (from 96.13p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 328mcm (324) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.2mcm (38.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 90.02% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €38, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €38, Front Season €41 (vs €38 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 91p, Front Season 106p (vs 96p and 111p)
UK Gas NBP spot 89p (from 89p)
UK Power DA £32 (from £57)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £79 (£83) and Front Season at £93 (£95).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $77 ($78) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $2.20 ($2.24) and JKM is at $13.94 ($14.47) with TTF Equiv of $12.36 ($12.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.