Market Insights 20/08/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 20/08/2024

A calm start to the week with a fairly flat session seen yesterday.

No change to the outlook as EU gas storage levels now touch the 90% level required by November, whilst escalations in the Middle East and on the Ukraine-Russia border continue.

It is expected that the flow of gas from Russia into Ukraine, which has been of concern in the region currently in occupation of fighting, will stop at the end of this year when the supply contract expires with Ukraine not wanting to extend it.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.85 (from €39.64) and the NBP Front Month contract at 96.13p (from 95.28p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 324mcm (325) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.5mcm (38.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.1). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 89.77% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €43 (vs €40 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 96p, Front Season 111p (vs 95p and 111p)
UK Gas NBP spot 89p (from 85p)
UK Power DA £57 (from £80)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £83 (£80) and Front Season at £95 (£95).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($80) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $2.24 ($2.12) and JKM is at $14.47 ($14.52) with TTF Equiv of $12.93 ($12.78).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.