Market Insights 13/08/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 13/08/2024

A mixed session yesterday which saw markets rise quite aggressively at one point before retreating towards the end of the day as continuation of recent concerns continued to play out.

The market is now preparing itself for gas flow from Russia via Ukraine to stop at some point. The transit deal expires at the end of this year and it seems Ukraine are unlikely to extend it. The fighting in the region in recent days puts that event to be earlier if the infrastructure is damaged.

Whilst gas volumes from Russia are now tiny compared to days of the past, the European markets are now much more sensitive to wider issues than ever before – it is now a much more global market than it ever has been as we now rely on LNG cargoes and this has also been showing ebb and flow in recent months.

Once again the upcoming winter will likely be another new experience for the European energy markets with changes never experienced before – that keeps them on their toes but under intense pressure – the result of which is likely yet more volatility to be seen.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €39.66 (from €40.40) and the NBP Front Month contract at 96.73p (from 98.65p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 330mcm (330) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.9mcm (36.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (39.6). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 87.59% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €39, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €39, Front Season €43 (vs €40 and €43)
Curve NBP Front Month 97p, Front Season 110p (vs 99p and 112p)
UK Gas NBP spot 83p (from 86p)
UK Power DA £73 (from £46)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £81 (£82) and Front Season at £96 (£94).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($80) and EUAs are at €73 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.19 ($2.14) and JKM is at $12.63 ($12.55) with TTF Equiv of $12.71 ($12.94).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.