Market Insights 09/08/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 09/08/2024

The nerves are still getting the better of the market as concerns continue around the flow of gas from Russia through Ukraine at Sudzha which is nominating lower each day as clashes continue in the area.

Prices on selected contracts are now pushing to recent highs again and also to psychosocial levels (typically key round numbers) such as £1/therm or €40/MWh on the front month contracts for the UK and TTF respectively.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €40.10 (from €38.45) and the NBP Front Month contract at 98.11p (from 94.46p).

Kollsnes on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 344mcm (348) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 35.0mcm (34.2) and Sudzha at 38.5mcm (37.3). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 86.65% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €40, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €40, Front Season €43 (vs €40 and €41)
Curve NBP Front Month 98p, Front Season 110p (vs 94p and 107p)
UK Gas NBP spot 85p (from 81p)
UK Power DA £18 (from £67)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £82 (£80) and Front Season at £94 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $79 ($78) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.13 ($2.11) and JKM is at $12.57 ($12.54) with TTF Equiv of $12.83 ($12.33).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.