Market Insights 30/07/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 30/07/2024

Further upside seen in yesterdays session, pushing prices back to a recent high.

The warmer weather may be pushing more gas for power generation demand which may have a knock on effect to the short queue of LNG in the coming weeks – showing that the market is still sitting rather nervously despite having relative stable fundamentals for some time.

The temperatures are expected to drop in the coming days and hold just above seasonal normal throughout August – with the seasonal normal levels now starting to decline over time as we head towards the end of the summer season.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.87 (from €32.48) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.70p (from 76.11p).

Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 340mcm (341) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.2mcm (39.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (41.9). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 84.49% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €39 (vs €34 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 80p, Front Season 98p (vs 76p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 77p (from 71p)
UK Power DA £76 (from £72)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £70 (£68) and Front Season at £86 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $80 ($81) and EUAs are at €69 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.04 ($2.01) and JKM is at $12.45 ($12.21) with TTF Equiv of $10.74 ($10.34).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.