Market Insights 18/07/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 18/07/2024

A soft session seen yesterday as the gains seen on Tuesday were all but eroded, as the market continues to hold station at these levels – pushing a bit upwards or downwards between days.

German gas storage reporting appears to hold errors, showing one site almost empty, as it has done a few times in recent months, therefore the value of gas in store is unchanged in todays report.

Still no LNG heading towards the UK whilst three and four vessels expected in Belgium and the Netherlands respectively over the coming weeks and six due into France which remains a dip to where it usually is across all ports.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.89 (from €32.80) and the NBP Front Month contract at 73.77p (from 76.25p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 333mcm (334) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.0mcm (39.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 81.38% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 0.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €37 (vs €32 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 74p, Front Season 94p (vs 76p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 71p (from 76p)
UK Power DA £75 (from £77)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £65 (£67) and Front Season at £83 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($84) and EUAs are at €67 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.04 ($2.19) and JKM is at $12.09 ($12.30) with TTF Equiv of $10.23 ($10.47).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.