Market Insight
Tony Jordan
10 July 2024

Market Insights 10/07/2024


A continued downward movement seen in yesterdays session as prices pull back from recently seen highs.

Temperature outlooks remain largely unchanged with cooler temperatures over the coming days before rising into next week for the remainder of July and into August.

Storage levels get close to the 80% marker, but no other change to underlying fundamentals which may have given the market less steam to run with meaning the outlook remains positive for the weeks ahead.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.34 (from €32.29) and the NBP Front Month contract at 72.79p (from 75.00p).

Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 335mcm (334) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.9mcm (40.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 79.55% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €31, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €31, Front Season €37 (vs €31 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 73p, Front Season 94p (vs 75p and 96p)
UK Gas NBP spot 75p (from 75p)
UK Power DA £66 (from £75)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £65 (£68) and Front Season at £85 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($86) and EUAs are at €69 (€69). Henry Hub is at $2.34 ($2.37) and JKM is at $12.37 ($12.39) with TTF Equiv of $9.94 ($10.26).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.