Market Insight
Tony Jordan
8 July 2024

Market Insights 08/07/2024


A flat end to the week as contracts stay close to where they were on the previous days session as the US celebrated Independence Day and the UK welcomed a new government last week.

Temperatures are expected to dip later this week before returning to just above seasonal normal for the rest of the month in the UK and Europe, whilst the southern US states prepare for hurricane weather following it passing over the Caribbean last week. This may impact LNG send out.

Visunds unplanned outage has been extended to the end the of this week, which just gets pushed back week after week.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.07 (from €33.35) and the NBP Front Month contract at 77.27p (from 77.98p).

Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 342mcm (328) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.2mcm (40.3) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 78.76% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €38 (vs €33 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 77p, Front Season 98p (vs 78p and 99p)
UK Gas NBP spot 77p (from 78p)
UK Power DA £81 (from £55)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £69 (£70) and Front Season at £88 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($87) and EUAs are at €70 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.32 ($2.42) and JKM is at $12.49 ($12.42) with TTF Equiv of $10.50 ($10.55).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.