Market Insight
Tony Jordan
4 July 2024

Market Insights 04/07/2024


A downward movement seen in yesterdays session, although still moving in small measures in either direction and continues to hold around price levels enjoyed now for many weeks.

Spot UK power prices, once again on a week day rather than a weekend, hitting lows with negative periods and an average price for the day of just £11/MWh.

Today in the US is Independence Day and in the UK it is Election Day which is likely to see a change of government this time tomorrow.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.69 (from €33.69) and the NBP Front Month contract at 75.97p (from 78.73p).

Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 331mcm (334) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.4mcm (40.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 77.87% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €38 (vs €33 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 76p, Front Season 98p (vs 79p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 75p (from 78p)
UK Power DA £11 (from £70)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £69 (£71) and Front Season at £88 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($86) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.42 ($2.44) and JKM is at $12.42 ($12.56) with TTF Equiv of $10.36 ($10.61).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.