Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 July 2024

Market Insights 01/07/2024


Welcome along to July.

Fridays session was fairly flat in the end with not much movement seen across any of the contracts.

Cooler weather is expected this week (being below seasonal normal) after seeing some high temperatures of late, although they are expected to be above seasonal normal for the rest of July and into August.

Asian temperatures are also forecast to remain high which has been driving LNG spot demand of late. In turn this has held up European market prices as we compete for deliveries – which have been limited in recent weeks.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.48 (from €34.85) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.35p (from 82.36p).

Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 336mcm (334) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.9mcm (41.9) and Sudzha at 42.1mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 76.91% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €39 (vs €34 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 100p (vs 82p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 81p (from 80p)
UK Power DA £81 (from £34)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £73 (£73) and Front Season at £89 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($86) and EUAs are at €67 (€67). Henry Hub is at $2.60 ($2.69) and JKM is at $12.64 ($12.66) with TTF Equiv of $10.84 ($10.95).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.