Market Insights 20/06/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 20/06/2024

A further uptick seen in yesterdays session as the Norwegian outages continue, although are not significant.

The is also concern around gas flows out of Russia with several parties being in dispute with Gazprom Export. OMV recently reported it expected flows to cease over payment disputes. Today being the 20th is a key day as the majority of payments are expected to flow today for the previous months deliveries in gas contracts.

On top of that yesterday Russian courts issued judgement on two parties, ENGIE and Innogy Engie, from taking their case to the international courts. Whilst not certain, it is believed most European based or delivered contracts permit European laws to preside, leaving this judgement perhaps limited in its effect.

This will of course be a distraction for the market, which continues to sit in a nervous state as to what to expect next. Overnight reports suggest further attacks from Russia on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.34 (from €34.70) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.86p (from 81.44p).

Visund still remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 328mcm (325) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 43.0mcm (42.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 74.09% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €40 (vs €35 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 102p (vs 81p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 82p)
UK Power DA £83 (from £82)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£74) and Front Season at £90 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $85 ($85) and EUAs are at €70 (€69). Henry Hub is at $2.91 ($2.91) and JKM is at $12.60 ($12.60) with TTF Equiv of $11.13 ($10.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.