Market Insight
Tony Jordan
18 June 2024

Market Insights 18/06/2024


A bearish start to the week as the concerns of last week pass without further repeat.

Warmer weather appearing, after being pushed back in the forecasts for the last couple of weeks, will also help as the unplanned outage in Norway continues.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.21 (from €35.36) and the NBP Front Month contract at 80.52p (from 83.29p).

Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 321mcm (328) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.2mcm (42.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.0). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 73.41% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €38 (vs €34 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 98p (vs 83p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 80p (from 84p)
UK Power DA £86 (from £85)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£75) and Front Season at £88 (£90).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €68 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.79 ($2.88) and JKM is at $12.58 ($12.76) with TTF Equiv of $10.75 ($11.09).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.