Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 June 2024

Market Insights 17/06/2024


A soft end to a Friday session that, at one point, was certainly extremely nervous as news of military shelling nearby to gas infrastructure that carries Russian gas across Ukraine was reported – later confirmed not impacting the infrastructure.

Temperatures set to increase this week, typically around two degrees centigrade above average seasonal normal levels in the UK for the coming weeks will be welcome after a mixed start to the summer.

However, temperatures have also been increasing across Asia and Australia have been experiencing issues with LNG send out in recent weeks – those issues combining to raise the LNG price of the local market. This may divert European bound cargoes – adding further pressure to the European markets.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.36 (from €35.72) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.29p (from 84.30p).

Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 328mcm (330) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.0mcm (42.9) and Sudzha at 42.0mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 73.18% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €39 (vs €35 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 83p, Front Season 100p (vs 84p and 101p)
UK Gas NBP spot 84p (from 88p)
UK Power DA £85 (from £70)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£76) and Front Season at £90 (£90).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($83) and EUAs are at €68 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.88 ($2.96) and JKM is at $12.76 ($12.10) with TTF Equiv of $11.09 ($11.27).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.