Market Insight
Tony Jordan
14 June 2024

Market Insights 14/06/2024


A slight uptick come the end of yesterdays session after yet more nerves creep into the market.

Issues with LNG facilities in Australia, potentially meaning a diversion of cargoes expected towards Europe, have injected another level of concern on top of all of those others mentioned in recent reports. However repairs to the facility are currently ongoing.

Closer to home the warmer weather appears to be slowly pushing out to further days after it showing to be expected to arrive around now in last weeks forecasts – it is now expected towards the middle of next week.

Underlying all of this, and likely for the coming weeks, will be the various claims made by political parties as the UK and parts of Europe undergo elections, followed later in the year by the US Presidential election – all of which may influence future energy policy.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.72 (from €35.29) and the NBP Front Month contract at 84.30p (from 83.87p).

Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 330mcm (331) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.9mcm (43.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 72.50% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €40 (vs €36 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 101p (vs 84p and 101p)
UK Gas NBP spot 88p (from 85p)
UK Power DA £70 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£76) and Front Season at £90 (£90).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($83) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.96 ($3.05) and JKM is at $12.10 ($12.03) with TTF Equiv of $11.27 ($11.23).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.