Market Insights 13/06/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 13/06/2024

An upward movement seen in the markets yesterday as a couple of storylines get discussed.

Firstly one of Uniper terminating dormant gas supply contracts with Gazprom Export, after delivery issues and disputes following the actions taken by Russia in 2022, approved by the arbitrator in Stockholm and subsequently awarded a large damages package worth €13 billion.

Secondly the fact that EU gas storage injections, whilst still at impressive levels for this time of year compared to previous years, have slowed throughout the last few weeks. This is partly due to prices fluctuating and the extended Norwegian outages, but will still set an underlying tone that will see more eyes watching progress as we head towards next winter.

Then of course the concern around political change – which is now due in the coming months not only in the UK and US but also in France, with decisions in each being potentially influential on future energy policy.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.29 (from €34.29) and the NBP Front Month contract at 83.87p (from 81.08p).

Visund remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 331mcm (331) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 43.1mcm (42.3) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 72.33% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €39 (vs €35 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 84p, Front Season 101p (vs 81p and 98p)
UK Gas NBP spot 85p (from 79p)
UK Power DA £81 (from £87)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £76 (£75) and Front Season at £90 (£89).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €71 (€71). Henry Hub is at $3.05 ($3.13) and JKM is at $12.03 ($12.00) with TTF Equiv of $11.23 ($10.79).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.