Market Insight
Tony Jordan
5 June 2024

Market Insights 05/06/2024


The market breathed a huge sigh of relief in yesterdays session as the gains seen in Mondays session were unwound.

It is expected that the issues relating to the reduced output from Norway will be addressed by the end of the week, after initially being concerned it could take some time to resolve.

With that problem, hopefully, being short lived the market avoids further panic – but it has once again displayed the tension it sits under, despite the prices declining over the course of the last year or so, as global issues still have a rapid and direct impact on energy markets.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.80 (from €36.01) and the NBP Front Month contract at 80.59p (from 87.12p).

Nyhamna remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 281mcm (264) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.3mcm (42.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 70.62% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €38 (vs €34 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 99p (vs 87p and 104p)
UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 89p)
UK Power DA £62 (from £74)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £75 (£80) and Front Season at £91 (£94).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($78) and EUAs are at €72 (€75). Henry Hub is at $2.59 ($2.76) and JKM is at $11.99 ($12.05) with TTF Equiv of $10.79 ($11.51).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.