Market Insight
Tony Jordan
4 June 2024

Market Insights 04/06/2024


And there we have it … we’ve said for some time now that the market sits rather nervously and in a week where temperatures dip slightly below seasonal normal we have issues in the Norwegian output which has sent a shock into the market.

Yesterdays session saw significant increases to Fridays close, with the UK NBP July contract trading as high as 94p/therm mid-morning, as traders tried to establish how significant the damage to the Sleipner pipeline was, before settling much lower by the end of the day.

With Europe now more reliant on Norwegian gas than ever before, now that Russian pipeline flows are all but a thing of the past, eyes now focus on the announcements from Gassco AS, who operate the Norwegian offshore network. It is not yet confirmed when the repairs will be completed, but Gassco are working with producers in the area to minimise the impact to gas flows to the UK and Europe as quickly as possible.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €36.01 (from €34.22) and the NBP Front Month contract at 87.12p (from 81.83p).

Troll joins Nyhamna which remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 264mcm (251) Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.1mcm (43.7) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 70.49% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €36, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €36, Front Season €40 (vs €36 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 87p, Front Season 104p (vs 82p and 101p)
UK Gas NBP spot 89p (from 89p)
UK Power DA £74 (from £81)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £80 (£77) and Front Season at £94 (£92).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $78 ($81) and EUAs are at €75 (€74). Henry Hub is at $2.76 ($2.59) and JKM is at $12.05 ($11.91) with TTF Equiv of $11.51 ($10.89).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.