Market Insight
Tony Jordan
31 May 2024

Market Insights 31/05/2024


A change in front month contracts which distort the daily comparisons as we hit the end of the month.

Temperatures are expected to fall below seasonal normal next week before settling just above once again for the coming weeks.

Limited LNG cargoes listed, Norwegian maintenance ongoing and returning slowly, and slowly refilling gas storage sites combined with dipping temperatures in the coming days and global tensions still rife, the market overall still sits rather nervously.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.35 (from €33.88) and the NBP Front Month contract at 84.80p (from 81.59p).

Kollsness remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 303mcm (293). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.5mcm (41.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 69.48% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €40 (vs €35 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 104p (vs 82p and 102p)
UK Gas NBP spot 87p (from 82p)
UK Power DA £69 (from £67)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £73 (£73) and Front Season at £93 (£91).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($84) and EUAs are at €75 (€74). Henry Hub is at $2.57 ($2.67) and JKM is at $11.96 ($11.83) with TTF Equiv of $11.24 ($10.74).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.