Market Insights 24/05/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 24/05/2024

The market continues to show to the upside in yesterdays session as we push to new recent highs each day.

Today Ofgem have confirmed the upcoming domestic price cap, effective 1st July, to be £1,568 for their ‘typical’ dual fuel customer. As expected, standing charges are unchanged and the drop is focussed to the unit rate. Overall it’s a 7% reduction to the April cap. It’s important that you look at the detail specific to you for the actual rates (based on location, payment type etc). Based on current market conditions it is expected the October cap (now under calculation) will increase back to the levels previously seen in April.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €35.23 (from €34.39) and the NBP Front Month contract at 85.33p (from 82.46p).

Kollsness on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 286mcm (280). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.7mcm (39.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 67.72% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €35, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €35, Front Season €40 (vs €35 and €40)
Curve NBP Front Month 85p, Front Season 105p (vs 82p and 103p)
UK Gas NBP spot 87p (from 86p)
UK Power DA £86 (from £66)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £77 (£74) and Front Season at £94 (£93).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $81 ($82) and EUAs are at €76 (€76). Henry Hub is at $2.66 ($2.84) and JKM is at $12.26 ($11.98) with TTF Equiv of $11.18 ($10.93).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.