Market Insight
Tony Jordan
23 May 2024

Market Insights 23/05/2024


Further upside seen in yesterdays market, as clouded news emerged relating to a court case that could potentially see gas flows reduced towards Europe.

Austrias OMV put out a rather cryptic message that the market has taken to relate to Russias Gazprom Export and it’s gas deliveries to Austria. It’s not clear if or when such a change could take place.

It was also reported that works on a new LNG plant in Texas has also suffered delays due to the main contractor filling for bankruptcy protection. Of course Europe is now heavily reliant on LNG, in particular from America, in replacement for Russian piped flows – so this can be seen as a bit of a double-whammy of negative news during yesterdays session – if of course this is viewed to have any physical impact to flows.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €34.39 (from €33.00) and the NBP Front Month contract at 82.46p (from 79.55p).

Troll on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 280mcm (265). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.6mcm (40.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 67.53% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €34, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €34, Front Season €40 (vs €34 and €39)
Curve NBP Front Month 82p, Front Season 103p (vs 80p and 100p)
UK Gas NBP spot 86p (from 79p)
UK Power DA £66 (from £75)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £74 (£73) and Front Season at £93 (£88).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($83) and EUAs are at €76 (€76). Henry Hub is at $2.84 ($2.67) and JKM is at $11.98 ($11.83) with TTF Equiv of $10.93 ($10.51).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.