Market Insight
Tony Jordan
22 May 2024

Market Insights 22/05/2024


More upward movement seen yesterday, with the UK winter gas contract now at £1/therm having crept up from around 80p/therm just six weeks ago.

On the positive side, some of the Norwegian assets are back online which has increased the output considerably compared to yesterday.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €33.00 (from €31.77) and the NBP Front Month contract at 79.55p (from 76.70p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 265mcm (179). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.2mcm (40.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 67.39% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €39 (vs €33 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 80p, Front Season 100p (vs 77p and 97p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 79p)
UK Power DA £75 (from £80)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £73 (£70) and Front Season at £88 (£88).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($84) and EUAs are at €76 (€74). Henry Hub is at $2.67 ($2.75) and JKM is at $11.83 ($11.51) with TTF Equiv of $10.51 ($10.12).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.