Market Insights 21/05/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 21/05/2024

An upwards movement in yesterdays session as the market prepared for planned maintenance of the Norwegian assets.

Many of those assets are now largely or completely offline which has a large impact on flow levels for the days ahead – today almost half of yesterdays flow.

These are planned events and so won’t come as a surprise to the market, and helps rationalise the increases seen in recent weeks. The main concern for the market will be the timely return of these assets which, historically, can be unreliable.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.77 (from €30.77) and the NBP Front Month contract at 76.70p (from 74.36p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 179mcm (317). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.2mcm (40.1) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.2). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 67.15% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €37 (vs €32 and €37)
Curve NBP Front Month 77p, Front Season 97p (vs 74p and 95p)
UK Gas NBP spot 79p (from 76p)
UK Power DA £80 (from £75)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £70 (£67) and Front Season at £88 (£85).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($84) and EUAs are at €74 (€71). Henry Hub is at $2.75 ($2.63) and JKM is at $11.51 ($11.05) with TTF Equiv of $10.12 ($9.81).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.