Market Insight
Tony Jordan
20 May 2024

Market Insights 20/05/2024


An upward end to the week, albeit small rises each day, has pushed the overall trend into a bit of a bullish mode for the time being.

A few newly listed LNG cargoes heading towards the UK will be timely as some of the Norwegian fields undergo planned maintenance this week.

Otherwise, the outlook remains unchanged.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €30.77 (from €30.25) and the NBP Front Month contract at 74.36p (from 73.03p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 317mcm (320). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.1mcm (40.6) and Sudzha at 42.2mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 66.77% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 5.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €31, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €31, Front Season €37 (vs €31 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 74p, Front Season 95p (vs 73p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 76p (from 68p)
UK Power DA £75 (from £75)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £67 (£66) and Front Season at £85 (£84).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €71 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.63 ($2.50) and JKM is at $11.05 ($11.05) with TTF Equiv of $9.81 ($9.64).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.