Market Insight
Tony Jordan
17 May 2024

Market Insights 17/05/2024


A small uptick seen in yesterdays session as the market stays generally flat of late with little to push it in either direction.

Yesterday was also the final wholesale calculation window of the upcoming Ofgem price cap effective 1st July, to be confirmed on 24th May, where it is largely expected to reduce from its current value of £1,690 by £100 to around £1,580 as a ‘headline’ rate.

The latest forecasts, looking ahead for the next six weeks, show above average temperatures to be expected. That will be particularly of note as many of the Norwegian gas platforms are to go into planned maintenance from next week which will see reduced flows.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €30.25 (from €29.73) and the NBP Front Month contract at 73.03p (from 72.02p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 320mcm (322). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.6mcm (40.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 66.06% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €30, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €30, Front Season €36 (vs €30 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 73p, Front Season 94p (vs 72p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 68p (from 72p)
UK Power DA £75 (from £74)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £66 (£65) and Front Season at £84 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($83) and EUAs are at €70 (€69). Henry Hub is at $2.50 ($2.42) and JKM is at $11.05 ($10.80) with TTF Equiv of $9.64 ($9.48).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.