Market Insight
Tony Jordan
16 May 2024

Market Insights 16/05/2024


A flat session yesterday, which follows a similar one seen on Monday, as the market has no clear driver to head in either direction.

EU gas stocks look healthy at two-thirds full. At the current injection rate it would reach the mandated levels of at least 90% long before the November deadline.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €29.73 (from €29.67) and the NBP Front Month contract at 72.02p (from 71.96p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 322mcm (323). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.5mcm (40.2) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 65.80% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €29, DOWN €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €29, Front Season €36 (vs €30 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 72p, Front Season 93p (vs 72p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 72p (from 75p)
UK Power DA £74 (from £71)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £65 (£65) and Front Season at £82 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($82) and EUAs are at €69 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.42 ($2.34) and JKM is at $10.80 ($10.45) with TTF Equiv of $9.48 ($9.41).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.