Market Insight
Tony Jordan
15 May 2024

Market Insights 15/05/2024


No real drive seen in yesterdays session, with very small movements to the upside on the front month contracts.

All of the fundamentals remain unchanged with the same underlying nerves just sat there.

This week sees the calculation period for the upcoming Ofgem price cap, effective 1st July, come to an end. Although wholesale prices have risen in recent weeks, it is expected that thanks to the lower prices seen in March that the overall headline cost will see around £100 removed from the existing cap which took effect from 1st April and out-turn around £1,580 for the ‘typical’ customer used to express the cap level. Ofgem will confirm the values on 24th May.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €29.67 (from €29.58) and the NBP Front Month contract at 71.96p (from 71.54p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 323mcm (322). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 40.2mcm (40.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 64.38% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €30, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €30, Front Season €36 (vs €30 and €35)
Curve NBP Front Month 72p, Front Season 93p (vs 72p and 92p)
UK Gas NBP spot 75p (from 70p)
UK Power DA £71 (from £64)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £65 (£65) and Front Season at £82 (£82).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $82 ($83) and EUAs are at €70 (€70). Henry Hub is at $2.34 ($2.38) and JKM is at $10.45 ($10.45) with TTF Equiv of $9.41 ($9.36).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.