Market Insight
Tony Jordan
7 May 2024

Market Insights 07/05/2024


A closed market yesterday in the UK for the early Bank Holiday weekend, whilst some European markets continued to trade.

That may see some ‘adjustment’ trading today whereby the European markets have increased during the closed market and so the UK market may look to ‘catch up’.

A warm week ahead before settling to seasonal normal levels expected.

Plenty of Q1 profits being reported by the oil majors in recent days, most of which reporting missing forecasts and/or being below previous quarter reports.

Friday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.80 (from €30.91) and the NBP Front Month contract at 74.47p (from 75.46p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 294mcm (292). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.1mcm (41.4) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 63.61% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €32, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €32, Front Season €37 (vs €32 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 74p, Front Season 93p (vs 75p and 93p)
UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 77p)
UK Power DA £77 (from £71)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £67 (£65) and Front Season at £82 (£81).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($84) and EUAs are at €73 (€73). Henry Hub is at $2.20 ($2.04) and JKM is at $10.47 ($10.41) with TTF Equiv of $10.05 ($9.70).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.