Market Insight
Tony Jordan
3 May 2024

Market Insights 03/05/2024


Another upward swing seen in yesterdays session across the board.

In recent days it’s mostly been movement at the front of the curve but further dated contracts were also caught up in yesterdays move, including carbon which may have been a driver for the rest of the mix.

No changes in outlook otherwise, despite a temporary unplanned outage in Norway which was quickly resolved, with temperatures expected to stay close to seasonal normal for the weeks ahead.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €30.91 (from €28.73) and the NBP Front Month contract at 75.46p (from 69.81p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 292mcm (283). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.4mcm (41.9) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 62.61% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €31, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €31, Front Season €36 (vs €31 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 75p, Front Season 93p (vs 70p and 88p)
UK Gas NBP spot 77p (from 70p)
UK Power DA £71 (from £63)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £65 (£61) and Front Season at £81 (£78).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $84 ($83) and EUAs are at €73 (€68). Henry Hub is at $2.04 ($1.93) and JKM is at $10.41 ($10.24) with TTF Equiv of $9.70 ($9.01).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.