Market Insight
Tony Jordan
2 May 2024

Market Insights 02/05/2024


An unwinding of Mondays gains seen in yesterdays session.

No real change in outlook as the weather is expected to stay close to seasonal normal throughout the month, allowing gas stocks to be refilled at leisure.

As such the market continues to hold in the range it has enjoyed the last few weeks, showing small gains or losses across a few days over the period, moreso when there is news of some description to allow it to ‘react’ albeit for a very short period of time.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €28.73 (from €29.12) and the NBP Front Month contract at 69.81p (from 71.53p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 283mcm (282). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.9mcm (41.5) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 62.32% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 1.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €29, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €29, Front Season €34 (vs €29 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 70p, Front Season 88p (vs 72p and 89p)
UK Gas NBP spot 70p (from 73p)
UK Power DA £63 (from £69)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £61 (£62) and Front Season at £78 (£79).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $83 ($86) and EUAs are at €68 (€69). Henry Hub is at $1.93 ($1.99) and JKM is at $10.24 ($10.34) with TTF Equiv of $9.01 ($9.13).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.