Market Insight
Tony Jordan
1 May 2024

Market Insights 01/05/2024


Welcome along to May.

Yesterdays session saw a bullish start to the week, unwinding the losses seen on Friday. Perhaps a nervous display as further ship attacks take place in the Red Sea and G7 ministers discuss ways to reduce LNG sourced from Russia into European markets.

The latest long term temperature forecasts show a warm first half of May to be expected, followed by several weeks of seasonal normal into mid-June.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €29.12 (from €28.06) and the NBP Front Month contract at 71.53p (from 68.28p).

Dvalin on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 282mcm (266). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.5mcm (39.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 62.10% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 2.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €29, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €29, Front Season €34 (vs €29 and €34)
Curve NBP Front Month 72p, Front Season 89p (vs 68p and 89p)
UK Gas NBP spot 73p (from 72p)
UK Power DA £69 (from £64)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £62 (£60) and Front Season at £79 (£77).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $86 ($88) and EUAs are at €69 (€65). Henry Hub is at $1.99 ($2.03) and JKM is at $10.34 ($10.21) with TTF Equiv of $9.13 ($8.83).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.