Market Insight
Tony Jordan
19 April 2024

Market Insights 19/04/2024


A move back upwards again seen in yesterdays session.

Temperature outlooks remain largely unchanged, apart from a slight dip in the coming days to be expected against the previous forecast.

After a quiet few weeks the Nord Stream AG saga continues with insurers stating that the pipeline was not covered for damage caused by acts of war, including detonation, as the company seeks around €400m from insurers.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €32.31 (from €31.29) and the NBP Front Month contract at 81.21p (from 78.15p).

Ormen Lange remains on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 337mcm (335). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 38.6mcm (39.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 62.06% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €33, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €33, Front Season €37 (vs €32 and €36)
Curve NBP Front Month 81p, Front Season 97p (vs 78p and 94p)
UK Gas NBP spot 82p (from 77p)
UK Power DA £49 (from £76)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £68 (£66) and Front Season at £85 (£83).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($87) and EUAs are at €72 (€70). Henry Hub is at $1.76 ($1.71) and JKM is at $10.88 ($10.75) with TTF Equiv of $10.10 ($9.77).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.