Market Insights 18/04/2024

DAILY MARKET REPORT – 18/04/2024

A pullback seen in yesterdays session, unwinding the gains seen from Monday.

The UK Winter gas contract getting close to £1/therm, now back down toward the low 90p area – reminding us just how nervous the market still is and how quickly the it can still move in a short space of time.

Temperatures are expected to stay below the seasonal normal until we get into May.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €31.29 (from €33.14) and the NBP Front Month contract at 78.15p (from 82.85p).

Ormen Lange on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 335mcm (324). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 39.0mcm (39.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 62.12% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €31, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €31, Front Season €36 (vs €31 and €38)
Curve NBP Front Month 78p, Front Season 94p (vs 83p and 98p)
UK Gas NBP spot 77p (from 83p)
UK Power DA £76 (from £72)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £66 (£69) and Front Season at £83 (£87).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $87 ($90) and EUAs are at €70 (€74). Henry Hub is at $1.71 ($1.73) and JKM is at $10.75 ($11.26) with TTF Equiv of $9.77 ($10.32).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.