Market Insight
Tony Jordan
10 April 2024

Market Insights 10/04/2024


A small downward movement seen in yesterdays session as the holding pattern seen of late continues.

The latest long term weather runs show above seasonal normal levels this week, quickly followed by a few colder days into next week before holding around or just below seasonal normal for the rest of April and throughout May. Of course this outlook changes daily.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €27.35 (from €27.91) and the NBP Front Month contract at 68.00p (from 69.71p).

No unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 338mcm (333). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 41.1mcm (42.0) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 60.62% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 4.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, NO CHANGE to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €33 (vs €27 and €32)
Curve NBP Front Month 68p, Front Season 85p (vs 70p and 86p)
UK Gas NBP spot 66p (from 71p)
UK Power DA £50 (from £48)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £58 (£58) and Front Season at £77 (£78).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $89 ($90) and EUAs are at €64 (€64). Henry Hub is at $1.87 ($1.84) and JKM is at $9.59 ($9.58) with TTF Equiv of $8.71 ($8.88).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.