Market Insight
Tony Jordan
5 April 2024

Market Insights 05/04/2024


A bounce upwards to undo the losses of the previous days session seen yesterday, as the market continues to hold pattern.

Brent Crude breaks into the $90 range for the first time in around six months as tensions heighten in the Middle East.

A heightened temperature outlook is expected this weekend with above seasonal normal levels expected for the week ahead before getting back to seasonal normal levels until mid May.

Yesterday saw the TTF Front Month contract settle at €26.21 (from €25.56) and the NBP Front Month contract at 64.84p (from 63.14p).

Gullfaks on unplanned outage this morning and we see a flow level at 345mcm (340). Russian nominations showing Velke Kapusany at 42.1mcm (41.6) and Sudzha at 42.4mcm (42.4). Nord Stream remains unavailable. EU gas storage showing at 59.44% full as per AGSI+. LNG vessels due to arrive in UK next couple of weeks is 3.

This morning we see the Front Month TTF contract at €27, UP €1 to the previous settlement.

A quick check on some key contracts (rounded to nearest whole):
Curve TTF Front Month €27, Front Season €31 (vs €26 and €31)
Curve NBP Front Month 65p, Front Season 81p (vs 63p and 81p)
UK Gas NBP spot 65p (from 63p)
UK Power DA £42 (from £61)

UK power prices show the UK Front Month Baseload contract at £54 (£54) and Front Season at £74 (£73).

In other areas of the market Brent Oil is at $91 ($89) and EUAs are at €59 (€57). Henry Hub is at $1.77 ($1.84) and JKM is at $9.55 ($9.50) with TTF Equiv of $8.35 ($8.12).

Numbers in brackets show the previous reports value.